> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://blackboard-fi.gitbook.io/blackboard-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://blackboard-fi.gitbook.io/blackboard-docs/trade/prediction-market.md).

# Prediction Markets

Participate in Polymarket-powered prediction markets on Blackboard. Trade on the outcomes of events across crypto, politics, economics, sports, and more.

## What Are Prediction Markets

Prediction markets let you trade **YES** or **NO** positions on the outcome of specific events.

* Prices range from 0 to 1, reflecting the market's estimated probability.
* When the event concludes, YES resolves to 1 if correct, or 0 if wrong.

**Example**: "Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2026?" — If YES is trading at 0.72, the market estimates a 72% probability of a rate cut.

## Categories

| Category        | Examples                                               |
| --------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ |
| **Crypto**      | price targets, protocol upgrades, ETF approvals        |
| **Politics**    | election results, policy decisions, regulatory changes |
| **Economics**   | interest rates, inflation, GDP growth                  |
| **Sports**      | match results, season champions                        |
| **Finance**     | stock predictions, ETF approvals, corporate earnings   |
| **Tech**        | product launches, AI trends, company developments      |
| **Culture**     | award shows, entertainment events                      |
| **Weather**     | temperature forecasts, natural disasters               |
| **Geopolitics** | international relations, conflicts, sanctions          |
| **Mentions**    | events based on social media mentions                  |

## Options (Up/Down)

Trade whether a price finishes up or down inside a short window. These settle through Polymarket like every other prediction market, collateralized in pUSD.

* **Assets**: major crypto — BTC, ETH, SOL, and more
* **Direction**: buy the **Up** token or the **Down** token
* **Pricing**: 0 to 100c, reflecting the implied probability. Winning shares settle at 100c, losing shares at 0c
* **Windows**: short and recurring; the available durations are shown on the trading screen

There is no leverage and no liquidation. Your maximum loss is fixed at what you pay to enter.

## How to Trade

1. **Select an event**: Browse categories and search for an event.
2. **Analyze the market**: Check the current price (probability), volume, and expiry date.
3. **Enter a position**: Choose YES or NO and enter your amount.
4. **Settlement**: After the event concludes, positions are automatically settled based on the outcome.

{% hint style="warning" %}
Prediction markets can result in total loss depending on the event outcome. Choose your investment amount carefully.
{% endhint %}

## Key Terms

| Term                  | Description                                                                                       |
| --------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Resolution**        | Final determination of event outcome. Settles as YES or NO                                        |
| **Resolution Source** | The standard used to determine the outcome (e.g., a specific media outlet, official announcement) |
| **Liquidity**         | Depth of the order book. Higher liquidity means less slippage                                     |
| **Open Interest**     | Total amount of capital committed to the event                                                    |

{% hint style="info" %}
Every event has explicit resolution criteria. Read them before you enter a position.
{% endhint %}

## Next Steps

* [What You Can Trade](/blackboard-docs/getting-started/what-you-can-trade.md): compare the products
* [Fees](/blackboard-docs/resources/fees.md): fee schedule